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Year
No. 20 (20) December 2005
No. 19 (19) December 2005
No. 18 (18) November 2005
№ 17 (17) November 2005
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№ 15 (15) October 2005
No. 14 (14) September 2005
No. 13 (13) September 2005
12 (12) August 2005
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Oleg Panfilov,
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Dmitry Alyaev,
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alyaev[at]cjes.ru

Roman Zyuzin,
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Adil Dzhalilov,
Kazakhstan,
adild[at]list.ru

a diamond stylus,
Kyrgyzstan,
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Nargis Zokirova,
Tajikistan
zokirova77 [at] mail.ru

Representative Names
in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
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Lyudmila Burenkova,
technical editor,
lyuda [at] cjes.ru

Elena Dorokhova,
design,
inwork[at]frw.ru
On the way to the "Celestial"
Fish Yuldashev
The Chinese panne in Turkmen brides snapped up. The matter has reached the point that a specialized factory is already being built in the tribal village of Turkmenbashi, moreover, under the personal control of Mrs. YI, one of the most influential people on the planet, according to Forbes rating. The 67-year-old deputy prime minister of the State Council of China is doing it for a reason. While in Ashgabat, she stated that in the foreseeable future, Turkmenistan could become one of the key partners for the Celestial Empire. As an argument, the motley composition of the delegation that accompanied it to Ashgabad, which included the leaders of the Export-Import Bank, the ministries of communications, commerce, the oil and gas company CNPC, the investment CITIC, the electrical engineering CHINT, the engineering CNMEG and even the mining CNMC.

"We learned a lot from Chinese friends." Saparmurat Niyazov speaks about this at every opportunity, now he is preparing for an official visit to Beijing. The terms are uncertain, the first half of 2006. In both states, there are indeed institutions of people's representatives, such as the All-China Assembly and the Turkmen People’s Council (Halk Maslahaty), the attributes of a national revival are the United Front in the PRC and the Revival of Turkmenistan (Galkynysh). In general, a similar attitude to human rights issues, back in 2000, in the Joint Declaration, they rejected the thesis of “the priority of human rights over sovereignty”. This list of used recipes, perhaps, is limited. In China, whatever one may say - the collective hierarchy of power, in Turkmenistan - the sole, in addition to the Communist Party in the PRC, eight more parties, in Turkmenistan - one. The economic model is built according to different scenarios, although they are potentially complementary.

The heights reached so far are small; even three official summits did not help. As is known, Niyazov twice visited the “distant relatives”; in 2000, the reciprocal step was followed by the former head of the PRC, Jiang Zemin, who received the Akhal-Teke stallion as a gift. Since that time, people from Chin-Machin (China in Turkmen) opened a national restaurant in Ashgabat, a direct Ashgabat-Beijing flight was established, and shuttle traders filled the markets with cheap Chinese consumer goods. At the same time, the volume of preferential loans from China amounted to slightly more than $ 60 million. Chinese National Oil and Gas Corporation revived a couple of hundred oil wells, Huawei Technologies provided telephone and cellular communications equipment, ZTE Internet Services, Capital-Longji Sci-Tech Co. updates the fleet of trains. With the participation of the Chinese at the beginning of 2005, 37 investment projects were carried out with a total value of about $ 400 million. In the stage of study - projects on the reconstruction of production facilities of the chemical industry, in particular, on the use of iodine-bromine waters, potassium and chlorine salts, and an oil refinery in the town of Seydi, Lebap Region. The large-scale projects remained on paper, including the Agreements on the development of the Turkmen shelf of the Caspian Sea, on the right bank of the Amu Darya, and the promising transnational gas pipeline project Turkmenistan-China stalled.

Only lazy, as well as access to Turkmen energy carriers, do not dream of conquering the Chinese market. The economic development of China is impressive, the energy intensity of its industry is progressing every year. China is already the second largest consumer of oil in the world after the USA. In the next decade, the 1.3 billionth country intends to abandon coal and oil in favor of environmentally friendly natural gas. At the same time, Beijing, in addition to neighboring energy sources in Russia and Kazakhstan, intends to focus on natural resources in Turkmenistan, Iran and Sudan, which are geographically located away from mainland China. For this reason, options for pumping natural gas from neighboring Siberia and laying a pipeline from nearby Kazakhstan were recognized as more viable and less capital-intensive. Ashgabad, in turn, believed more in the success of the enterprise with its neighbors. In actual fact, all the dreams and efforts to lay the pipe through the border Iran to Turkey, as well as across the territory of unstable Afghanistan to Pakistan, turned out to be unrealizable and in vain. The Turkish market is already occupied by energy carriers from Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, and Tehran is energetically making its way to Islamabad and Delhi, again, not without the help of the Russian gas monopolist Gazprom, which is developing at the South Pars primary gas field.

One way or another, it can be predicted that Turkmenistan, which possesses world reserves of natural gas and is on the hook of Russian pipeline communications, will try to catch up in 2006 and again make the construction of the pipe eastward again. As the Turkmen government officials say, there is plenty of room on the Asia-Pacific market. If you believe in their optimism, then for Ashgabat the minimum program is to reach the Shanghai streets, the maximum is to embrace the markets of South Korea and Japan. As you know, in the late nineties, the feasibility study of the “project of the century” was jointly prepared by the American Exxon, the Japanese Mitsubishi Corporation and the Chinese National Petroleum Company. According to the project, the total length of the transnational gas pipeline with a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year is 8,300 kilometers, of which 6,000 kilometers from Turkmenistan to the eastern Chinese settlement Lianyungang, the rest of the way under the submarine route to the territorial waters in South Korea and finally to the Japanese city of Nigata. The late former Prime Minister of Japan Keizo Obuchi put this project into a strategic goal. “If the natural resources of Turkmenistan reach the Pacific Ocean and the pipeline reaches the archipelago, there is no doubt that this will positively affect peace and stability in the Asian region.”

According to some estimates, the project could be implemented in one five-year period. This route, for a variety of parameters, has long been recognized by experts to be less expensive than that of the Arab Qatar. The key issue in this question, of course, is the question of the basic source, but Ashgabad is still pulling the results of the audit of natural resources conducted by international companies. One way or another, the promising nature of the deposits on the right bank of the Amu Darya River has long been proven and the exclusive right to develop them, for obvious reasons, the addressees themselves - the Chinese and the Japanese - want to get. Along with the companies of Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States, they conducted geological and geophysical research in this area. The contract area of ​​16,000 square kilometers has a projected resource of 1.7 trillion cubic meters of natural fuel.

Beijing also expects to gain access to the energy carriers of potential energy-donor countries and by absorbing a portion of shares in oil and gas projects. For example, PetroChina Company Ltd. - A subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), the largest state-owned oil and gas company in China, has already placed twenty percent of its shares worth $ 2.4 billion to accumulate funds for the purchase of foreign assets. The analytical center of the Russian MDM-Bank, in particular, predicts that PetroChina may expand this amount in Turkmenistan, including acquiring companies such as Dragon Oil and Burren Energy.
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