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Magazine       "Oasis"
Year
No. 24 (44) December 2006
№ 23 (43) December 2006
№ 22 (42) November 2006
№ 21 (41) November 2006
№ 20 (40) October 2006
№ 19 (39) October 2006
№ 18 (38) September 2006
№ 17 (37) September 2006
No 16 (36) August 2006
15 (35) August 2006
No. 14 (34) July 2006
№ 13 (33) July 2006
№ 12 (32) June 2006
№ 11 (31) June 2006
No 10 (30) May 2006
No 9 (29) May 2006
№ 8 (28) April 2006
№ 7 (27) April 2006
No. 6 (26) March 2006
No. 5 (25) March 2006
№ 4 (24) February 2006
№ 3 (23) February 2006
№ 2 (22) January 2006
№ 1 (21) January 2006
THE AUTHORS
Subscribe
on       journal [PDF]:
Oleg Panfilov,
project Manager,
panfilov[at]cjes.ru

Dmitry Alyaev,
chief editor,
alyaev[at]cjes.ru

Roman Zyuzin,
webmaster,
webmaster [at] cjes.ru

Adil Dzhalilov,
Kazakhstan,
adild[at]list.ru

a diamond stylus,
Kyrgyzstan,
citizen2005[at]yandex.ru

Nargis Zokirova,
Tajikistan
zokirova77 [at] mail.ru

Representative Names
in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
not disclosed

Lyudmila Burenkova,
technical editor,
lyuda [at] cjes.ru

Elena Dorokhova,
design,
inwork[at]frw.ru
Between the coyote and the wolf
Yadgor Norbutaev (Tashkent)
It seems to us that, having declared Uzbekistan’s return to the bosom of the CSTO, President Islam Karimov, as a political figure, has completely lost its appeal to Russia. In the future, expect nothing more from him. The signing of the few remaining protocols within EurAsEC is just a matter of time and the resolution of this issue does not depend on the wishes of Islam Karimov. By joining all pro-Russian international unions and associations, the Uzbek president achieved (in exchange for the ghostly guarantees of personal well-being) that the foreign policy of Uzbekistan became completely dependent on the verdicts issued in the Kremlin.

Another thing is whether Tashkent will be able to comply with these Kremlin verdicts. When in the East they say “hop,” more often it means not agreement, but something else, rather the opposite in meaning. As many observers assumed after the establishment (restoration) of such friendly relations between Russia and Uzbekistan, large-scale investment flows did not pour into it (Uzbekistan). And not because of the fact that Russian businessmen do not invest in Uzbek spaces on anything, but for the simple reason that any such event is given to countless local officials. Any branch of government in the country is powerless against them, most of them corrupt. Even the president is unable to guarantee the safety and profitability of foreign investment. At one time, representatives of many states were convinced of this.

Hence the conclusion - Russia needs a firm government in Uzbekistan, which could guarantee the effectiveness of its own investments in the Uzbek economy, defuse the entire explosive situation in the country. This is the first conclusion.

Further. The population of Uzbekistan has always been quite benevolent towards Russia's claims to the priority of its interests in the region, as opposed to the similar ones from the West and China. Recently, however, the popular, to put it mildly, “non-sympathy” to the current president is unwittingly transformed, and transferred accordingly to Moscow. According to the current Constitution, the term of stay of Islam Karimov in power is limited to the next year. To extend it, changes are needed in the Constitution, which is very problematic. How many times can a referendum be held on this issue ?! The provoked military conflict, on borders with neighbors or within a country on a religious or inter-ethnic basis, may, of course, serve as a pretext for extending the power of Islam Karimov, but this is hardly beneficial for Russia. At the very least, the CSTO treaty at the moment may serve as some guarantee for the prevention of such provocations. The conclusions suggest themselves - for the Kremlin in the near future, it is extremely advantageous to replace the current Uzbek president with a loyal Russia and legitimate at the same time figure.

The situation is complicated by the fact that even the appearance of rumors about a person who is really being elected for the presidency may cause destabilization in the republic. Until now, all such, even virtual, persons were immediately eliminated from the political horizon by Islam Karimov himself. It follows that, first of all, it is necessary to neutralize the current president and at the same time ensure his personal security, as a last resort, just promise her, while not allowing chaos and unrest in the country. For example, Islam Karimov hastily leaves, say, for treatment, the power is temporarily transferred to the “name”, which in the future is publicly elected to the presidency. How to implement such a question of technology, we will not dwell on it yet.

In the latest annual message from Putin, there is a very characteristic passage about “Comrade Wolf”, which “eats and does not listen to anyone.” We do not know what kind of wolf the Russian president called the “comrade”, I think, he meant “Mr. Coyote”. The role of the “little rabbit” is more suitable for Uzbekistan in this introduction. So, the "little rabbit" does not make much difference who is going to eat it, whether it is "Comrade Wolf" or "Mr. Coyote." Islam Karimov at one time refused the services of "Mr. Coyote", entrusting them to "comrade wolf." In order for the “gastronomic process” to take place with due comfort, Russia needs to change the old sauce on the platter - to a new, more digestible one.

Of all the satellites, Uzbekistan, in relation to Russia, is the most flexible and obedient, in which even Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have surpassed. This situation should especially flatter Putin, how, then, the US influence on the state of affairs in the republic is practically reduced to zero and the cherished goal is near - complete monopolization of the management of all the energy resources of the Central Asian region. The matter remains for the small - it is necessary to “equip” the political power in Uzbekistan. The cadres here decide everything and the solution of the personnel question Moscow must implement itself!

Interestingly, in the current situation, everything has changed, now Karimov, or rather the very fact of his being in office, as a factor in the possible destabilization in the region, as it suits the West and, in particular, the United States. This sounds extremely paradoxical, but in the wake of a possible unrest in the country and Russia's impossibility to prevent or curb it (unrest), objective preconditions may well arise to advance the interests of the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that “trial balloons” are increasingly appearing in the press in the form of gloomy forecasts and warnings. But the Americans have no real leverage for this, Muslim extremism does not count, it’s too risky. The foreign opposition to the Karimov regime is also not suitable for this, it is divided and weak. Are there specific levers for solving their own analogous tasks for Russia?

It seems that she has such levers and very effective ones. This is, above all, the Uzbek National Security Service and Rustam Inoyatov who heads it. He and the department he headed now should have been the first to be brought to justice, for having “missed” the shoots of the Andijan uprising, but this did not happen. While the ministers of defense and internal affairs of Uzbekistan were ostracized for their unprofessional actions to suppress the May revolt, the Uzbek National Security Service only intensified, and its representatives penetrated all spheres of the public life of the state. Jointly with Russia, as with a strategic ally, the “fight against international terrorism” within the CSTO completely allows Inoyatov to carry out any operational activities without coordinating them directly with “Durmen” (presidential residence). Inoyatov himself, although he is now the de facto nomenclature of Russia, is probably a bit old for the position of president of the republic, and he has been compromised enough, but he is quite suitable for promoting the creature that suits Moscow.

Most likely, a Kremlin protégé in Uzbekistan will pursue a policy consistent with that which Yury Andropov once implemented. In a nutshell, this domestic policy was expressed, as, “it’s time to restore order in the country using the coolest methods.” The population of Uzbekistan, which suffered so much adversity from the Karimov government and tired of arbitrariness and total corruption, may well support the new president putting forward such slogans.
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