The economy of Tajikistan is at the stage of transition to a market economy. For the speedy transition to these relations and for the development of the national economy, various programs are being developed today, such as, for example, the “Poverty Reduction Strategy for the period 2007-2009” and the “National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2015”.
The current economic situation is considered stable, and in recent years there has even been an upward trend, which is 7% per annum. Particular emphasis is placed on the development of the national economy on attracting foreign investment and creating joint ventures for the processing of manufactured local raw materials. According to the State Statistics Committee of the country, direct investment in various sectors of the republic’s economy in 2006 amounted to $ 385.2 million, which is 7 times more than in 2005. The volume of direct investment amounted to 65.4% of the total foreign investment. The total amount of foreign investment amounted to 13.7% of GDP, and each citizen of the republic accounts for $ 55.1.
Most of these investments in the amount of $ 229.9 million, or 60% of the total, are aimed at developing hydropower, and the remaining funds are channeled to other sectors. In the first quarter of this year, for the first time, the share of investment in neighboring countries increased compared to far-abroad countries and amounted to 60.8% or $ 234.3 million. The contribution of foreign countries to the Tajik economy is 39.2% or $ 150.9 million.
According to the Minister of Finance of Tajikistan Safarali Nadzhmiddinov, just three years after the implementation of investment projects in the energy and transport sectors, economic growth rates will double. The launch of a number of large power plants, the start of operation of new roads connecting Tajikistan with the countries of South Asia and providing access to seaports should lead to an increase in commodity circulation and, accordingly, production inside the country.
According to the State Statistics Committee, the growth of foreign trade turnover is observed annually, and in the first quarter of this year it amounted to $ 891.5 million, which is 28.2% or $ 196.3 million more compared to the same period last year. The trade balance is negative since independence and imports still exceed exports. Moreover, the country's economy continues to be raw, as 75.1% of the export potential is aluminum, 9.4% is cotton fiber, 2.6% is electricity, etc.
Despite all the indicators of economic growth, experts say that its level is only 30% of the 1990 figures, with the exception of the production of aluminum and electricity. In some sectors there are indicators that are two times more than in 1990. The growth of production is observed in a separate category of the agricultural sector and only in the grain crops sector. The 2006 figures confirm that grain production increased 4 times, compared with 1991 and amounted to 919 thousand tons. However, this is not enough to meet domestic needs and the annual import of wheat is more than 600 thousand tons.
According to Vakhoba Vakhidov, head of the agribusiness development department of the Economic Research Institute of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the decline in production in all sectors of the economy was halted in 1996 and the first steps of economic reforms yielded positive results a year later. In 1997, the growth of the national economy was 2%, compared with previous years. Vahidov argues that the development of the national economy requires and requires government regulation, certain programs to reform all sectors, taking into account the experience of developed countries and clear mechanisms for their implementation. It is government regulation and support that contribute to the development of the economy, the private sector and the attraction of additional investments.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the country pins its hopes on the implementation of the programs of the above-mentioned programs “Poverty Reduction Strategy for the period 2007-2009” and “National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2015”, according to which the reduction in the number of the poor in 32% and high rates of growth of the national economy. At present, according to official data, the number of poor in the country is 64% of the population.
The implementation of the program “Poverty Reduction Strategy for the period 2007-2009” will require $ 5 billion and now sources of financing have been determined by 45%. The share of the Government of the Republic for the implementation of this program will be $ 240 million and $ 802 million is predicted by attracting investment. The contribution of international donors will be $ 1.2 billion. The program “National Development Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan until 2015” provides funding in the amount of $ 13 billion. Currently, these documents are under consideration by members of the lower chamber of the Tajik parliament for study and approval. According to the director of the Economic Research Institute, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Nuriddin Kayumov, after the adoption of these documents, they will become the main models of the country's economic development. However, their full implementation depends on funding.
The government of the republic has already identified priority areas for the development of the national economy. In this issue, the priority is given to the development of hydropower, transport and processing of agricultural products, and it is these areas that can become the driving force of the development of the national economy in the future. Currently, the lack of electricity negatively affects the production of products, especially industrial, in the autumn-winter period. The lack of electricity during this period does not allow to achieve the projected increase in production. There are large reserves of energy resources in the country and according to preliminary estimates, when using them at 100% per year, it is possible to produce 527 billion kWh. electricity. However, to achieve this goal will require more than $ 7 billion.
In the future, it is also planned to build high-voltage power lines in the direction of Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran-India.
In the field of transport, i.e. construction of highways and bridges now using loans from international financial institutions and individual countries, projects worth more than $ 500 million are being implemented. The implementation of transport projects will allow Tajikistan to overcome the transport impasse and turn into a transit country.
For the processing of products, especially agricultural, the Government of the Republic adopted a number of programs, in particular, the development of light industry, which provides for a full cycle of cotton fiber processing. According to this program, until 2015, all cotton produced should be processed in the country to finished products. To implement this program, more than eight new production facilities need to be built, and the construction of three factories has already begun.
For fifteen years of independence, Kyrgyzstan was supposed to become, according to the idea of the authorities, Central Asian Switzerland, then the sixth “Asian tiger” on the example of the growth of Taiwan and South Korea. Then for a time subsided. Today they offer to become the second Kazakhstan. All these options did not meet with unanimous approval in the country. Because no economic experiment was supported by concrete actions. While the authorities are still looking for some kind of universal model of economic development, citizens themselves are doing their own economy, not allowing the country to collapse.
Today, some experts have high hopes associated with the revival of the national economy and with the growth of remittances of Kyrgyz citizens working abroad, mainly in Russia, Kazakhstan and in European countries. According to various estimates, the flow of remittances to Kyrgyzstan amounts to $ 700 million annually. In fact, no one really knows what the actual amount of remittances of labor migrants are. Because not all of them are carried out by banks. But it is clear that they began to seriously influence the country's economy. In many ways, the gradual growth of medium and small businesses in the country is directly related to this cash flow.
Some experts see a certain new economic model of the country's development in this particular cash flow from labor migrants, citing the example of neighboring China, thousands of whose citizens work outside the country and provide their relatives with permanent money transfers. With this money, medium and small businesses in the country are actively developing. Why not take an example from neighboring China? And to improve that which has been acting for a long time, but it acts uncontrollably and chaotically.
Umar Shavurov, the former head of the International Business Council of Kyrgyzstan, believes that “due to transfers in rural areas, new houses are being built, livestock numbers and the number of families with cars are increasing, money supply appears, which is used for small-scale production. The influx of currency from migrants helps to improve the living conditions of recipients of transfers. ” Saparbek Orozbakov, director of the Bishkek Center for Economic Analysis, who believes that the Kyrgyz economy is sick with a special form of the “Dutch disease” because of the greater inflow of foreign currency into the country, strongly disagrees with him. In his opinion, this contributes to inflation. By "Dutch disease" Orozbakov implies that state of the economy, when one of its branches begins to develop faster than the others. At the same time, the development of this industry, accompanied by an increase in the inflow of foreign currency, leads to an appreciation of the local currency and an increase in inflation. With a high rate of national currency, the value of exported goods in terms of foreign currency rises, while the cost of imported goods in terms of local currency, on the contrary, decreases, and domestic goods become uncompetitive both in foreign and domestic markets.
President Kurmanbek Bakiyev sees the future model of the country's economic development in attracting foreign direct investment. In his annual address to the country's parliament, the head of state outlined the country's economic development priorities, stressing that “we should be aware that Kyrgyzstan is a small country with a GDP of only about $ 2.5 billion. It is clear that we are able to invest for own income of less than $ 300 million. This is enough only to maintain what is already there. In addition, to ensure an acceptable rate of 8% per year, economic growth should not be consumer-oriented, but investment. Economic growth based on favorable prices for raw materials (gold, for example) is growth without development. ” The head of state singled out four sectors of the economy where it is preferable to attract foreign direct investment. These are energy, communications, agriculture and mining.
According to the data of the National Statistical Committee of the country, in the first quarter of this year the amount of foreign direct investment in the economy of Kyrgyzstan was $ 78.1 million. This is 137% more than in the same period last year. Then the amount of foreign direct investment amounted to only $ 23.9 million. During this time, the volume of foreign investment in the manufacturing industry has doubled, and the inflow of foreign private investment in the mining industry has increased almost 13 times. If in the first quarter of last year $ 1.85 was invested there, then this year for the first three months the amount of foreign direct investment amounted to $ 21.1 million.
Also, the volume of foreign direct investment in financial activities increased by 8.7 times - $ 12.217 million this year against last year's $ 1.4 million. Meanwhile, in the first quarter there was a decrease in foreign direct investment in agriculture, forestry and hunting. If in the first quarter of last year $ 442 thousand was invested in this industry, then in the first three months of this year only $ 94.8 thousand was invested. Joint ventures took the leading place in the country in the production of such products as sugar (100%), food alcohol (96%), pasta (70.3%), knitwear (55.9%), jewelry (45.3).
This is the official data of attracting foreign direct investment. which makes a very good picture. The government of the country is quite successfully coping with the tasks set by the president in the framework of the country's economic development.
However, it should be noted that so far nothing has been done concretely to attract foreign direct investment, to create a favorable investment image of the country. Frankly speaking, before the Tulip Revolution, Kyrgyzstan was not particularly attractive for foreign investors, and now even more so. All the largest investment projects in the country in recent years were somehow connected with a series of political scandals. These are investments in the mining industry, in the development of tourism and hotel services, in the development of telecommunications. The list can be continued. We are still more attractive to international scammers and other odious personalities, who from time to time offer us another scam. What is the conflict around the Jerooy field? No one can understand who is right and who is wrong. Because there is no consistency and logic in the actions of all parties involved in this conflict. Now the scandal around another field is gaining momentum again. This time around the long-suffering Kumtor. The reasons for these conflicts no one really can not understand. Meanwhile, both of them are connected with the mining sector of the economy, which the authorities are proposing to make attractive for foreign investments in the framework of the program for the economic development of the country.
According to Bakyt Kylychbekov, the candidate of economic sciences should take into account the special geopolitical role of Kyrgyzstan in modeling the economic development of the country. Ex-President Askar Akayev proposed to use the same thing in his time. In the meantime, such a good geopolitical location is more used for drug trafficking and human trafficking.