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Magazine       "Oasis"
Year
№ 20 (64) October 2007
№ 19 (63) October 2007
No. 18 (62) September 2007
№ 17 (61) September 2007
No 16 (60) August 2007
15 (59) August 2007
№ 14 (58) July 2007
№ 13 (57) July 2007
№ 12 (56) June 2007
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No 10 (54) May 2007
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№ 4 (48) February 2007
№ 3 (47) February 2007
№ 2 (46) January 2007
№ 1 (45) January 2007
THE AUTHORS
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on       journal [PDF]:
Oleg Panfilov,
project Manager,
panfilov[at]cjes.ru

Dmitry Alyaev,
chief editor,
alyaev[at]cjes.ru

Roman Zyuzin,
webmaster,
webmaster [at] cjes.ru

Adil Dzhalilov,
Kazakhstan,
adild[at]list.ru

a diamond stylus,
Kyrgyzstan,
citizen2005[at]yandex.ru

Nargis Zokirova,
Tajikistan
zokirova77 [at] mail.ru

Representative Names
in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
not disclosed

Lyudmila Burenkova,
technical editor,
lyuda [at] cjes.ru

Elena Dorokhova,
design,
inwork[at]frw.ru
Obsessive fraternity
Kaysarov (feathers)
Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan signed an unprecedented document for the Central Asian region - an agreement on the establishment of the Supreme Interstate Council (Navy), headed by the presidents of the two states, designed to coordinate the development of cooperation in the political, economic, scientific, technical and humanitarian spheres in the field of regional and global security. This is the main result of the official visit of the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev to Kyrgyzstan. In fact, this is the first step in absorbing Kyrgyzstan by Kazakhstan. What is behind this?

Kazakh business has shown unprecedented activity in Kyrgyzstan in recent years. Even if this activity is only mainly limited to banking. According to Russian analysts, the Kazakh authorities simply clear the way for their oligarchic groups by creating such an intergovernmental body. This agreement is a bit like a Russian-Belarusian union. When there is a rich and successful neighbor who is ready to “help” a neighbor to a poor and unhappy one who has neither oil nor gas, but he arranges revolutions and demonstrations all year round.

The President of Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev, has long been worn with the idea of ​​creating a kind of Central Asian "European Union". The realization of the reality of this venture was hindered by various political ambitions of the leaders of the countries of Central Asia. Kyrgyzstan was chosen as a springboard, because this country very quickly found itself, practically, in a bankrupt position. The industry is on zero growth, inflation is rising, corruption has reached enormous proportions. There is no clear economic development program of the country. In addition, two years of political confrontation seriously knocked down an already precarious situation. That is why it was not necessary to specifically persuade Bishkek to join this union and create an interstate body. After two years of complete economic and political profanation, the Kyrgyz authorities were ready to do anything to save their political face. Astana made a proposal to Bishkek, which Kyrgyzstan could not refuse. If it is simpler to say, Kazakhstan waited for a good moment when Kyrgyzstan is ripe for such a decision. Let me remind you that President Nazarbayev once said in an interview with the state news agency of the country that "probably no Kazakh knows the Kyrgyz people better than I do." So there is nothing to deny, go, while invited.

The Kyrgyz political establishment has differently assessed the main outcome of Nazarbayev’s visit to Bishkek. MP Murat Juraev believes that of course there will be some kind of economic dependence. “But this, I think, is even better than living in such chaos. In addition, we still live in economic dependence, and in this case we will not depend economically on the United States or anyone else, but on our brotherly people, ”concluded the people's representative. Previously, Juraev offered to unite with Russia, now he is a supporter of such an alliance with Kazakhstan. Azimbek Beknazarov, the leader of the Asab party, a member of the national parliament, believes that President Nazarbayev somewhat exceeded his authority during negotiations with the Kyrgyz side regarding the settlement of border issues and the transfer to Kazakhstan of four boarding houses on the bank of Issyk-Kul. Also, according to the deputy, Beknazarov all the speeches of the head of the Kazakh state were instructive. In principle, we can agree with some reservations with the opinion of the people's choice. Indeed, the Kazakh side arranged the entire visit in such a way that from the outside it looked like the arrival of an older relative, who had come to chide the younger one and make it clear that he was ready to help, if the “youngest” returned to the family. The President of Kyrgyzstan with great pleasure played the role of “younger brother”, not tired of talking about the successes of Kazakhstan, deliberately emphasizing that all this was achieved by Kazakhstan thanks to President Nazarbayev.

In response to such praise, this year the head of the Kazakh state promised to allocate $ 100 million for the development of the Kyrgyz economy. And “in a fatherly way” he promised to invest in billions more of full-fledged dollars, provided that the Kyrgyz behave well. And as the first confirmation of their words, in Bishkek, the official delegation headed by President Nazarbayev signed 40 agreements on the supply of agricultural products to Kazakhstan.

The stumbling block in Kyrgyz-Kazakh affairs is the future of boarding houses and rest homes, which are Kazakh property in Issyk-Kul. From time to time in Kyrgyzstan there appear people willing to nationalize them, which cannot but frighten existing owners. Considering that the lion’s share of holidaymakers on this mountain lake is made up of citizens of Kazakhstan, one can imagine the delicate situation the Kyrgyz authorities are in. President Nazarbayev recalled these ill-fated pensions in his address to the parliament and the people of Kyrgyzstan. “We want to build a short road from Kazakhstan to Issyk-Kul, but the issue of our property, which is in Issyk-Kul, is not solved in any way, the parliament has not yet ratified this agreement. Our borders have not yet been ratified by the treaties, all this causes distrust, ”said the head of the Kazakh state. Taking into account the fact that President Nazarbayev mentioned them in his address, we can conclude how seriously the Kazakh authorities treat their property in Kyrgyzstan. Especially considering one more circumstance, that one of the most luxurious holiday homes on the northern coast of Issyk-Kul belongs to the president of Kazakhstan himself.

Another revelation of the sudden Kyrgyz-Kazakh friendship at the state level was future investment projects. Kyrgyz authorities have offered Kazakhstan to finance the construction of the Kambarata HPP-1 and HPP-2. President Nazarbayev explained why Astana wants to participate in the financing of this project. “We will not do this because it is necessary for us. Now we can provide our southern regions with electricity at the expense of the northern ones. But why spend your money and money when we can interact with the neighboring state? ” Previously, the same was offered to the Russians as an exclusive joint energy project. Now for the Kazakhs. The Russian side is still silent. It is unlikely that Russia will calmly respond to the Kazakh expansion into the energy market of Kyrgyzstan, which considers it practically the Russian zone of economic influence.

In addition to the Kambartinsky project, the Kazakh side is also interested in agriculture. And already this year, Kazakhstan is ready to deliver up to 1.5 thousand tons of wheat to Kyrgyzstan as a “gift”. Despite such “generous gifts”, official Kazakhstan makes it clear that there will be more help and money if the economy and politics remain stable, noting that it does not matter who will be the head of state, it is important that all changes take place within the framework of the country's Constitution.

Djuraev sincerely believes that Russia can join the political union of Kazakhstan with Kyrgyzstan over time. The Kazakh president, so that the Kyrgyz may not change their mind, warned, just in case, that he estimates: “Kyrgyzstan now has three ways out of the situation. The first is to sit down at the negotiating table, the second is to respect the power that is chosen by the people, and it must use its power to bring order to the country in a democratic and legal way. The third is that if the first and second are not accepted by Kyrgyzstan, there remains an alternative to becoming the same as Afghanistan was at one time - unrest, no power, who wants what it does, extremism, terrorism, drug trafficking, and all this will be here. ”
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