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Magazine       "Oasis"
Year
№ 20 (64) October 2007
№ 19 (63) October 2007
No. 18 (62) September 2007
№ 17 (61) September 2007
No 16 (60) August 2007
15 (59) August 2007
№ 14 (58) July 2007
№ 13 (57) July 2007
№ 12 (56) June 2007
№ 11 (55) June 2007
No 10 (54) May 2007
No 9 (53) May 2007
№ 8 (52) April 2007
№ 7 (51) April 2007
No. 6 (50) March 2007
No. 5 (49) March 2007
№ 4 (48) February 2007
№ 3 (47) February 2007
№ 2 (46) January 2007
№ 1 (45) January 2007
THE AUTHORS
Subscribe
on       journal [PDF]:
Oleg Panfilov,
project Manager,
panfilov[at]cjes.ru

Dmitry Alyaev,
chief editor,
alyaev[at]cjes.ru

Roman Zyuzin,
webmaster,
webmaster [at] cjes.ru

Adil Dzhalilov,
Kazakhstan,
adild[at]list.ru

a diamond stylus,
Kyrgyzstan,
citizen2005[at]yandex.ru

Nargis Zokirova,
Tajikistan
zokirova77 [at] mail.ru

Representative Names
in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
not disclosed

Lyudmila Burenkova,
technical editor,
lyuda [at] cjes.ru

Elena Dorokhova,
design,
inwork[at]frw.ru
Clones
Dmitry Alyaev
Elections in Kazakhstan were virtually uncontested. The one-party parliament has once again proved that nothing is impossible for the wise decisions of the leaders of Central Asian states, even those relatively democratic, which Kazakhstan considers itself to be. Apparently, the original calculation was correct. The preparations for the elections went in such a way that the average electorate simply had no desire to participate in all this. The tiredness of the perception of the same political debates between clone parties and the “pushing” into the background of other, more pressing problems has affected. However, many observers agreed that the elections were "democratic", especially since there was no choice as such.

However, not everything is done spontaneously and Nursultan Nazarbayev is not, strictly speaking, the inventor of this political know-how. He only finalized it and adapted it to local conditions. Ahead of the “planet of the whole” at the regional level, as always is Turkmenistan. It has long been no Turkmenbashi. But his business lives on. And wins "bashizm" to this day. His successor, President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, although he is dressed in democratic clothes, is in fact not that he does not want or cannot, but perhaps he is frankly afraid of changes to a well-functioning state system, elements of which can be exported to his neighbors. Moreover, economic contacts between Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan have been developing quite dynamically lately. For example, in this regard, we can mention the implementation of the project of the Caspian gas pipeline and the cross-border transport corridor North-South, the initiative of which the Turkmen leader launched in the spring of this year.

And also interaction in the agricultural and transport sectors ... Well, is it possible with such a stormy economic partnership not to borrow from Turkmenistan and a bit of ideology? Obviously not. Moreover, most likely Kazakhstan will achieve chairmanship in the OSCE, and for this it just needs a stable regime.

The same applies to Uzbekistan. Experts believe that what is happening in this country now predetermines its immediate future. The blessing for the elections has its own perennial developments and the latest experience of Kazakhstani comrades. Moreover, the official Tashkent will not bother with sophisticated multi-pass combinations. To begin with, in the last months in Uzbekistan, essential products have risen in price sharply. The salary increase, which stimulated the price increase, was undertaken by the government with populist goals. This is evidenced by the fact that Islam Karimov periodically raises wages, pensions, scholarships and allowances in order to state on occasion that the well-being of his people is growing. However, we all know that such increases only further exacerbate the poverty of the population, since only rumors of a rise in the money supply market instantly inflame already high prices. Things reached the point that in the country began to observe interruptions in food. Residents of not only the regions, but also the capital, could not purchase essential products for free sale.

Poor people can also be skillfully manipulated. For example, before the elections, you can adjust the supply of food, directive by reducing prices on it. Of course, this will not cause sudden mass love and adoration to the government, but there will be no usual discontent, which in part will ensure a relatively calm electoral process.

There is no successor to his Islam Abduganievich post, most likely, no. And do not be surprised. Under the conditions of the Central Asian democracies, amending the constitution is a matter of technology. They will be approved by everyone from whom it will be required. A few years ago, for example, at a meeting of the Oliy Majlis, one of the high-ranking government officials issued a letter from the Uzbek elder about the possibility of extending the term of his duties as the current president to life. Then Islam Karimov made it clear that he did not consider this proposal serious. However, today nothing prevents him from changing the law. After all, the new seven-year term for Islam Karimov is formally the first. So, if you wish, the previous terms may not be considered.
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