The Kazakh opposition, analyzing the results of the election campaigns of the last three to five years, will most likely get rid of illusions more and more. The opposition’s chances of coming to power are less and less. The authorities in Kazakhstan make it clear that only those who are in power will be able to win in the country. At the same time, the government behaves exactly as the society allows, more and more frustrated in politics and politicians.
The entire Kazakhstan opposition has come out of power. Several waves of changes in the political system in Kazakhstan and political crises in the republic threw dozens of politicians, economists, and pro-government businessmen out of the power of the sea, who suddenly became oppositionists.
The most professional opposition, in the sense of experience in the struggle against the authorities, in Kazakhstan are the Communists. They were deprived of power in 1991 and have never returned to it since then. Local successes in the parliamentary and presidential elections in the late 1990s, when first at the presidential elections, Communist leader Serikbolsyn Abdildin won about 15% of the vote, and the Communist Party was able to hold two of its candidates on the party lists to parliament at once. large-scale. In the last presidential election, the Communists supported a single opposition candidate, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, and refused to participate in the parliamentary elections in August of this year.
The communists, despite the fact that they still declare their desire to establish people's power, already understand that there is practically nothing to rely on for them - they have fewer supporters, and there are no new ideas capable of attracting Kazakhstanis ...
The second wave of the transition of politicians from power to the opposition was observed in 1998-1999, when problems began with the then former Prime Minister Akezhan Kazhegeldin. The ex-prime minister himself has been living abroad since then, while a group of his supporters in Kazakhstan are trying to fight. Success was never achieved by the group, since it had almost no chance to wage this struggle legally - the party of the former prime minister was eliminated, the media were closed or selected, and the most active supporters were deprived of the opportunity to run for parliament and local authorities because of court sanctions.
The most large-scale transition from power to opposition occurred in 2001. It was all about the confrontation of a group of young and promising politicians and businessmen and the then senior son-in-law of Kazakhstan’s president Rakhat Aliyev. As a result, the privileges and power lost young and promising. Deputy Prime Minister, Akim (Governor) of Pavlodar Region, Minister of Labor and Social Protection, Vice-Minister of Defense and others left their posts. Later, some of them returned to power, part of them sat behind bars, and the majority became oppositionists for many years.
Many journalistic materials about the opposition in Kazakhstan contain reasoning about whether, and how strongly, oppositionists want to return to power.
Certainly want. But some of them would just like the power to belong to their parties, and some are willing to work with the current authorities.
Not long held in the ranks of the opposition, for example, economist Kairat Kelimbetov (during the confrontation in 2001 - Vice-Minister of Economy). Within a few months after his departure from the government, he returned with a raise, taking the post of Minister of Economy and Budget Planning.
Dismissed at the same time from the post of chairman of the anti-monopoly agency Berik Imashev, he later began a successful career in the presidential administration and the Security Council. In addition, he became a relative of the president, marrying his daughter to the senior grandson of President Nursultan Nazarbayev. With such kinship, participation in opposition activities will probably no longer be possible.
Oppositional leaders have no chance to explain to their voter what they are striving for. The opposition in Kazakhstan is experiencing a serious lack of attention to itself from the media.
The opposition, which turned out to be in an information vacuum, could go to the people and explain its strategy to the masses. But there are difficulties. Oppositionists in Kazakhstan do not have many charismatic leaders - you will not send them to every court in the country. In addition, local authorities are much less liberal than at the republican level - local bosses absolutely do not want to endanger themselves because of the activity of opposition members in their patrimony. So, the opposition has not so many chances to get through to the people and explain to them what you want.
And the people of Kazakhstan themselves are losing more and more interest in the initiatives of the parties and their leaders, regardless of whether they are pro-government or oppositional.
In 2005, the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, uttered the famous phrase about the opposition, which many people still remember: “The opposition must be normal, not yelping, like we do.”
"Charming" - this is the limit of assessment, which is given in the power of the opposition. Neither the dialogue nor the constructive cooperation of the authorities and the opposition can be reached. Oppositional leaders repeatedly rejected proposals to join various commissions to discuss political reforms, eventually receiving those amendments to the Constitution that could not be thought of. Parliament, whose powers are wide only on paper, and the first president, who can be elected as many times as necessary. The government, in turn, has never listened to the proposals that the opposition put forward - neither in the political, nor in the economic, nor in the social spheres.
Both in the opposition itself and among the population, the disappointment is growing stronger. Not so much in the current government as in the possibility of changing something. The first such disappointment came in 2004, when many and many people said that they had voted for the opposition party Ak Zhol (Shining Path), but in the end the party won only one seat in the parliament on party lists. Candidates who ran in counties did not succeed either. As it turned out later, this was not the hardest lesson the opposition had to learn.
In 2005, during the presidential election, a single candidate from the opposition forces received 85% less than the winner - the current president Nazarbayev.
The humiliation only intensified this year when only one party passed to the parliament after the elections, the leader of which is Nazarbayev.
In the opposition, they are sure that they managed to get out of all election campaigns not only as winners, but also not losers. The opposition has repeatedly pointed out irregularities in the election process and tried to challenge the results. But all her attempts invariably ended in failure. At the same time, if in the first election campaigns, when the opposition was clearly receiving less votes, some Kazakhstanis were ready to protest and fight, now there are less and less of these. The government is well aware that its competitor from one election campaign to another is becoming weaker, losing the support of its supporters. The opposition still has enough strength to talk about hopes for the future. But, undoubtedly, the strength will decrease.
The next five years in Kazakhstan, the opposition will not be represented either in the parliament, where there is not a single opposition deputy, or in the government, where the opposition is not invited. The opposition has little chance of becoming stronger - all hope is only for the mistakes of the authorities.