Kazakhstani authorities, the opposition and business structures are concerned about the events in Andijan. However, each of these groups has its own reasons for concern.
Until now, the state bodies of Kazakhstan have not given an official assessment of the events in Uzbekistan. During the week, journalists tried in vain to get comments from government officials, but even the deputies, who usually willingly responded to journalists' questions, avoided comments. The feeling was created that all official sources of information in Kazakhstan were hiding and observing how it would all end.
One of the few was a statement by the chairman of the National Security Committee (KNB) of Kazakhstan, Nartai Dutbaev, at a press conference after a meeting of the Council of Heads of Security Agencies and Special Services of the CIS Member States. Mr. Dutbaev expressed the opinion that in Kazakhstan there are no reasons and conditions for the “flower revolutions”, which are based, above all, on the difficult socio-economic situation of the population. “As for Kazakhstan, we have a stable situation connected with rapid economic growth and interethnic consent of our people,” said the head of the Kazakh special services.
However, the actions of law enforcement agencies themselves regarding the events were fairly predictable. As it is known, in connection with the latest events, the Kazakh border guards, customs officers and the personnel of the Central Internal Affairs Directorate in the South Kazakhstan region were transferred from May 13 to a reinforced version of duty. Enhanced mode, apparently, will act for a long time.
By the way, not everyone is noticeable, but, obviously, an important echo of the Andijan crisis was noticeable even in the product market. Uzbek entrepreneurs in May always supplied Kazakhstanis, in particular Almaty residents, with fresh vegetables and fruits. Immediately after the border was closed, vegetables, strawberries and cherries rose by an average of 1.5 times, and the rise in prices is likely to continue.
Director of the Risk Assessment Group, political scientist Dosym Satpayev: “An information vacuum has formed around the conflict. It is believed that this was an extremist coup attempt. I doubtfully treat all comments. At the root of the rebellion were socio-economic problems. For a long time the problems of poverty and corruption were not solved. On the part of the President of Uzbekistan, there were no attempts to understand the people. Karimov established a monopoly. Stiffness is its characteristic. "
Commenting on the events in Uzbekistan, Eduard Poletayev, director of the IWPR (Institute for War and Peace Reporting) office in Kazakhstan, noted that “the actions of the rebels were illegal, and the rebels themselves acted under the influence of emotions, and events like Andijan would be repeated, but in a different scenario . Karimov will not stand on ceremony with the rioters, ”he said.
Many ordinary people in Kazakhstan are also inclined to believe that the rally in Andijan was caused by the disastrous economic situation of the majority of the residents of the Fergana Valley. It should be noted that many Kazakhstanis know very little about life in Uzbekistan as a whole due to the lack of information coming from their neighbors, and also, it must be admitted, indifference to events in other countries of the region against the background of their own well-being growth. Even though the majority of illegal labor migrants in Kazakhstan have Uzbek, Kyrgyz or Tajik passports, Kazakhstan citizens, as a rule, have no interest in neighboring countries.
Trade and economic relations between the two neighboring republics are in their infancy, so there are no concerns about losing money in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan’s businessmen do not have.
The reason for their concern lies in something else: the business circles of Kazakhstan, including small and medium-sized businesses, do not want any drastic upheavals, be it revolutions or local riots. If we compare the impression of a civilized change of power in Ukraine and Georgia with the Kyrgyz, and even more so, the Uzbek scenario, we can note a rather cautious attitude in Kazakhstan towards the prospect of a “color revolution”. In other words, the very concept of “revolution” was somewhat de-romanticized after the events in Andijan and Karasuu. In any case, not even the actions of the parties, but the prospect of the “meat grinder” frightened in Kazakhstan not only the authorities, but also other sectors of society.
It should be noted that according to the latest unofficial data, Kazakhstani law enforcement agencies are intensively preparing for a possible exacerbation of the situation. The media even passed the information that the Ministry of Internal Affairs is actively equipped with small arms.
However, in the context of a dialogue between political opponents that was more or less formed in the country, it is difficult to prevent a repetition of the Andijan plot, unless the authorities begin to actively withdraw the opposition from the legal field. Perhaps only then extremist sentiments will be forced. Meanwhile, there are different opinions regarding the prospects for a coup in Kazakhstan.
“Since we are in Asia, there’s no easy change of power. The most important vaccination against all revolutions is economic stability. We have a fairly well-formed middle class, and it is unlikely that he will participate in any political events. I would not want to lose my business during the revolutionary events or after a completely new formation of power comes, ”an anonymous source from the business environment said. If the situation changes, then according to the anonymous author, many businessmen and their families will simply leave the country for the time of unrest.
Answering the question of whether the development of the revolutionary events in Kazakhstan is possible, Eduard Poletaev answered that in principle there is nothing impossible. “The ideal state does not exist. And the problems remain the same. But in Kazakhstan, this will not grow into mass demonstrations, since most of the population is busy. There is a middle class layer that has something to lose, ”the expert noted.
At the same time, political scientist Dosym Satpayev notes, “it is unlikely that this will happen in Kazakhstan. But if it does, the scenario will be, in fact, Kazakhstan. Financial and industrial structures will take part in resolving the conflict. If, on the part of the West, criminal structures are financed, then a war for property will begin. ”
It is worth recalling that the presidential election is scheduled in Kazakhstan in December 2006. However, all indications are that preparations for them have already begun. In particular, many political scientists associate the initiative of the Draft Law “On Amendments and Additions to Certain Legislative Acts on Ensuring National Security” to the concern of the authorities after several revolutions.
The bill has already tightened the demands of the authorities to international organizations and NGOs.
By the way, it would be very appropriate to add that on May 12, at a meeting with representatives of the intelligentsia in Aktobe, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan noted that “decisive importance in consolidating and enhancing achievements is, above all, strengthening political stability in the republic and unity ... And the most true in these conditions is the preservation of a strong presidential power capable of ensuring the country's further progress towards prosperity ... In the current situation, the search for an alternative to such power would be harmful. ”
It can be assumed that against the background of the Andijan events, everything goes to the fact that the strengthening of power will continue.